Betting on any live market is always a test of nerve and any savvy punter will instantly tell you that managerial markets are ones to avoid like the plague.
This has often been the rule as prices fluctuate wildly and one rogue rumour is enough to see one of the candidates backed off the boards.
Except there's a common theme with most clubs these days. They're all skint. And what do you do when you're a company short of cash? You take a pragmatic approach to recruitment.
I could list oodles of examples here but one of the cheapest successes in this market came when I backed Phil Parkinson to get the Charlton job. The caretaker boss did appallingly and yet still got handed the reins simply because he was the cheapest
option.
I also had a hefty wedge on Neil Lennon to get the Celtic post recently for the same reason. Celtic may be a glamorous name but they're no longer a glamorous club. Lennon, the first footballer I ever interviewed during his time at Crewe but that's another story, has potential and is a choice most fans would accept.
But the stunning Scottish Cup defeat to Gretna seemed to have put paid to his hopes of keeping the job. Except it was excused and I was soon cashing in on my wager. Why? Because he was a better option for the board than all of the other candidates? No, it's just that promoting from within was cost-effective.
Don't get me wrong. There's nothing wrong with this policy. It served Liverpool well for decades. Without giving people a chance, we'd never get anywhere and the managerial merry-go-round would be made up of the same sad old faces hopping from job to job.
But do some research and look up recent managerial appointments across Britain. Take a look at exactly how many interim appointments, the men holding the fort, end up getting the job permanently. Sometimes even if they don't want it (Ricky Sbragia at Sunderland) or their record is shocking (Parkinson).
So next time a manager gets the sack and there's a scramble for all those big names to take over, try and step back from the situation and think rationally. If you were the chairman, what would you do? Okay, forget that. Now think again. If you were the chairman and was forced with financial troubles, what would be the cheapest option? Then find your stand-in temporary coach and have a cheeky flutter on him holding firm.
Of course, it doesn't always work. But you'll find that there's a growing tendency to take the easy option and save a few bucks. Chairmen have a habit of consistently picking the wrong man, and yet when it comes to rectifying the situation they take little responsibility themselves and just wield the axe again.
They should be more accountable but they're often happy to support the caretaker boss. 'It's all about continuity' they preach. 'He deserves his chance'. 'The fans can identify with him'. Poppycock. He's cheaper than the unemployed bosses living off their compensation and raiding other clubs means hefty fees being paid out.
Cheapest means best when it comes to betting on the next manager markets. This is where you should be looking to invest when the time is right.
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